Gary Elliott • 27.02.25 • 3 min read
Seventh Carbon Budget highlights size of the challenge, and the prize
Aviation is highlighted as a slow to decarbonise sector in the Climate Change Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget published yesterday. ATI CEO Gary Elliott underlines the role technology can play in rising to the challenge.
The Climate Change Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget published yesterday highlights the immense challenge of decarbonising aviation compared with other sectors.
It also demonstrates the size of the prize that developing ultra-efficient, zero-carbon emission and cross-cutting aircraft technologies represents for the UK economy and global environment. A shared industry vision for a new generation of ultra-efficient aircraft flying with lower- and zero-carbon emission fuels can keep the world connected while managing the sector’s environmental impact.
The report notes the exact balance between abatement measures is uncertain, underlining the importance of developing a portfolio of technologies. Our view is that advanced aerospace technologies flying with lower- and zero-carbon emission fuels provide the best in-sector routes to reduce aircraft emissions, therefore reducing the need for out-of-sector measures.
Continued support for innovation in efficiency improvements and new aircraft technology is highlighted as one of five key actions to delivering the report’s Balanced Pathway.
| “There is a strategic case for the UK to be at the forefront of the development of efficiency improvements in aviation and zero-emission aircraft. The UK has a world-leading and mature aerospace sector with the experience and capability to get new aircraft concepts to market.
“Current zero-emission aircraft concepts would also be able to service essential services and connectivity flights such as those for the Scottish Highlands and Islands and between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.” Climate Change Committee Seventh Carbon Budget |
This continued strategic investment to drive development of ultra-efficient, zero-carbon and cross-cutting technologies is key to delivering against UK economic and environmental goals. By developing these technologies today, we are advancing technology readiness and growing UK capability ready to secure market opportunities. Our analysis shows the UK could grow its market share from 13% today to nearly 18% in 2050, when the market will be worth £220bn.
The Seventh Carbon Budget forecasts that aviation’s share of UK carbon emissions will grow from 8% today to around 25% in 2040 as other sectors decarbonise. This is driven by a forecasted growth in passenger demand as air travel becomes more accessible to a growing population globally.
This increasing passenger demand is an important part of the investment case for developing new technologies and is a driver for economic growth, as recognised by the Government’s support for the expansion of UK airports. Constraining demand would be a risk to both.
Alongside technology adoption, increasing availability of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is key to delivering Net Zero aviation. The Seventh Carbon Budget forecasts SAF will account for 33% of emissions saving in 2040. While availability of SAF and other novel fuels ramps up, developing ultra-efficient aircraft technologies represents a win-win by reducing fuel demand and tailpipe emissions.
Through the ATI, I’m fortunate to have a front row seat to the technology development happening across the nations and regions of the UK. I also see there’s more to be done and I invite the sector to work with us to capitalise on the opportunity the transition to Net Zero presents.
Read the Seventh Carbon Budget on the Climate Change Committee website.